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About the Episode:
Anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) are nothing new; they have plagued US-based solar developers and decision-makers since 2011. These duties, aimed at preventing unfair trade practices, greatly impact pricing and timelines of solar projects and generally seed uncertainty in the marketplace (at the outset, at least). We now have a new round of trade investigations being undertaken by the US Dept. of Commerce. What’s at stake, and who will be most impacted?
AD/CVD investigations were initiated 13 years ago to address concerns in the marketplace that Chinese-based solar module manufacturers were unfairly influencing fair market price of solar panels through dumping and government subsidies. On May 15th, 2024, the International Trade Administration (ITA) announced a new investigation into PV cells. This time, however, it goes beyond mainland China and focuses on 4 additional countries of origin — Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia — countries that presently supply about 80% of the US's solar modules. These potential duties, ranging from 50% to 250%, aim to prevent dumping (the sale of foreign goods in the U.S. at significantly lower than U.S. prices) and protect domestic manufacturing.
Yet, many are of the opinion that it’s just going to create more market uncertainty and further slow the progress of solar energy deployment.
Dan Shreve, VP of Market Intelligence, and Christian Roselund, Senior Policy Analyst at Clean Energy Associates (CEA) are veritable market experts on the topic, so I asked them to help us understand whether the recent AD/CVD investigations are expected to profoundly impact procurement in the coming months and what else this trade case may implicate in the US market looking out into 2025.
Expect to learn:
A short history of Anti-dumping and countervailing duties.
How AD/CVD investigations affect solar imports and project timelines.
CEA’S expectations for upcoming tariff rulings, rates, and their impact on future pricing.
Dan and Christian offer clear insights to help you navigate these changes. Whether you're a developer, IPP, or decision-maker, this episode will equip you with the knowledge you need to make informed decisions in the coming months.
Worried AD/CVD will impact your solar projects? Listen in to find out if you’re at risk!
Helpful RESOURCES:
Connect with Dan Shreve:
Connect with Christian Roselund:
Check out Clean Energy Associates (CEA):
Further Reading:
NOTEWORTHY QUOTE:
“Everyone’s very focused on cell capacity. That’s the real core pinch point. Module supply is very much the market, the production capacity that’s available is substantially higher than what is required in terms of US demand.”
“In terms of the energy transition, this is likely to speed the rate of deployment of renewables globally, these products may be shut off from entering the US market. But there are other markets around the world where they’re likely to go, particularly in developing nations, that if they see an opportunity to take advantage of this low cost, solar could end up deploying a lot of renewables a lot faster.”
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ABOUT THE HOST OF SUNCAST:
Nico Johnson is the creator and host of SunCast, consistently rated a top solar podcast in the clean energy sector. The content of the show is geared towards listeners looking for insights on where the markets are headed, how to position themselves or their companies, and what today's market leaders do to stay ahead of the pack.
Nico is an Investor, Executive Coach, and 16-year veteran of the solar industry, having led development in the US and Latin America for global companies like Trina Solar and Conergy.
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